One of the toughest questions in science is simply “when do you admit you were wrong?”  It’s never an easy thing to do, but we all understand that in the scientific method sometimes our most beautiful, most beloved hypotheses turn out not to describe the world as it truly is.  But people are human and it’s only natural that they’d prefer their favorite hypothesis to be right, and of course there’s always the possibility that just around the corner is some new evidence that will finally prove them right…

This process of clinging to an unsupported hypothesis in the face of repeated failures is something I discussed in a previous post.  There, I discussed working in a lab where we treating our hypothesis more as an engineering problem, we felt we knew that what we were doing was possible if only we could do it right.  Repeated failures never swayed our view of this point, and rather than admit it might be impossible, we would just double down and try again.  When that sort of thinking infects a lab, how do you treat it?  How do you get scientists to go back to being scientists, to go back to accepting or rejecting hypotheses based on the evidence and not taking them as gospel prior to even doing the experiment?

I think one thing that might help this process would be a revolution in the publishing industry in which null results would be considered publishable.  Right now it is very rare to get a paper published that says “we failed to prove something new.”  Novelty is desired, overturning the established paradigms is desired, and failing to accomplish either basically condemns your work to the trash bin, totally unpublishable.  I have often thought that null results should still be archived, if only to tell future scientists where the pitfalls lie and dissuade them from wasting more time on a fruitless endeavor.  But until null results are as publishable as positive results, people will still have a substantial interest in redoing failed experiments just in the hope that this time it will succeed, to do otherwise would force them to admit defeat and start all over from the beginning.