Author Archives: theusernamewhichismine

Why can’t I seem to finish a game of Dyson Sphere Program?

I’ve talked a couple of times about Dyson Sphere Program on this blog, and while I’ve enjoyed my time with it immensely, I’ve never managed to actually sit down and finish a game of it. This post will be a sort of ramble on why a game so similar to Factorio just doesn’t do it for me the way Factorio does.

To start with, I’ve already talked about how I feel the game doesn’t “scale up” in the same way Factorio does. Later research goals in Factorio cost exponentially more than earlier ones, but in Dyson Sphere Program the relationship seems more additive or multiplicative than exponential. Then there’s the difficulty with blueprints, I can’t have a nice big blueprint that does everything I want anywhere I want it because since planets have to be spheres, the gridlines get broken up closer to the poles. This means a blueprint developed for the equator doesn’t work at the poles and vice versa, and means it’s not nearly as fun to make and place my blueprints for a big mega-base.

I’m also not to keen on constantly having to move between planets. In Dyson Sphere Program you have different planets that you’re collecting resources from, which should be really fun but the time it takes you to GET to those different planets is very boring. They couldn’t have realistic space travel ala Kerbal Space Program, but they also didn’t do enough to make space travel interesting in and of itself. So sitting there for a few minutes while you travel to another planet is just boring, and you HAVE to keep going back and forth because there’s no way to build things on one planet while you’re standing on another. This was something Factorio dealt with very well, running around was also boring in Factorio but once you build radars everywhere you could go into your map and change things anywhere that you had radar coverage without ever having to move your character. It was fun, it worked, and Dyson Sphere Program should have incorporated it so I don’t have to trek back and forth between planets just to make minor changes.

The lack of enemies is another thing I think I’ve talked about but it bears repeating because in Factorio the enemies actually did a lot for the game. Their attacks kept you on your toes, pushing back their bases gave you something to do while waiting for research, and it was a very fun structural problem to try to figure out how you were going to make everything you wanted to make while still protecting it. Factorio gives you an infinite canvas to build on, but gives you constraints in that you must protect everything from the enemies. That’s more interesting to me than an infinite canvas with no constraints.

Constantly needing to refuel your character (a robot), as well as needing to physically be in the places you want to build, work together to make me not enjoy the endgame. I don’t like running around making sure I have enough fuel or am standing near a charging station, and I don’t like building a giant conveyor belt across a tundra planet if it means I have to march across the planet myself to make sure it gets built. Having the bots build actually makes building long belts go a lot more slowly in this game than it did in Factorio where at least you could build a belt at your running speed.

Unclear benefits to building the actual Dyson Sphere. The Dyson Sphere in literature and science is an idea of harnessing the nearly unlimited energy of a star to do our bidding, and yet I got all the way to the final Research cube and never found myself with the kind of unsolvable power troubles that seemed to require a Dyson Sphere. I built one for kicks (it’s also unclear where you’re supposed to build the launchers but whatever), but I feel like I’d have been just as well or better served building more and more solar grids across the surface of the planet. Land was super plentiful and why should I spent more to build solar grids in space when I could just build solar grids on the ground. The efficiency gains (if there even were any) weren’t worth it and the energy gains for running your planet-wide base weren’t so great that I felt I needed it.

So overall Dyson Sphere Program is still a very fun game, and it’s a somewhat unique way to combine Factorio with space travel. But I’m feeling less and less confident in recommending it to others considering I can’t even bring myself to finish it.

When everything is a psyop, nothing is

Don’t read this one if you don’t like divisive politics

Psyop, meaning psychological operation, has felt like the word of the decade in political circles. Intro paragraphs are boring so I’ll cut right to the chase: just because America’s enemies support a cause, doesn’t mean that cause is bad or wrong. The USSR both rhetorically and covertly supported America’s Civil Rights Movement because they saw it as a way to take America down a peg. Yet morally the Civil Rights Movement was good regardless of who supported it. These days it seems you can’t have any political event without claims that Russia or China is supporting it and therefore it’s tainted and evil. This sort of closed-minded thinking short circuits any reasonable discussion and turns it into nationalistic chest beating instead because “you don’t support, Russia, do you?”

What’s most disturbing is how this type of Cold War thinking has infected the Liberal spaces which you’d think would be immune to it (given how much it was used against them just a decade and a half ago). I often find it sickening how I can find supposedly “Liberal” voices calling for the death of Edward Snowden on the grounds that he (*checks notes*) alerted Americans to the fact that the NSA was illegally wiretapping Americans without any oversight whatsoever. It seems that because all this happened on Obama’s watch, it has to be beyond criticism, and since Snowden fled to Russia, it means his actions prior to his flight are all evil by association. Regardless of the fact that Snowden is now a Kremlin asset who toes the party line for his own safety (a rather common situation in fascist dictatorships like Russia), his actions he took while in America shed light on the exact kind of mass surveillance program which was supposed to be closed after Bush left office, but which continued on regardless under a more Liberal president.

Then there’s the claims that the 2016 election was illegitimate since Russia’s intelligence agency launched a concerted campaign in support of Trump, nevermind that they also launched a concerted campaign in support of Black Lives Matter, the fact that Trump was helped by Russian psyops is proof of his illegitimacy, and proof that he was bought and paid for by Putin.

I’m no fan of Trump and have never voted for him, and I think Snowden’s actions in carrying water for Putin are disgraceful and themselves warrant prosecution. But it’s pretty short sighted to try to de-legitimize Trumps (undemocratic) victory in 2016 by pointing out that he was helped by Russia, when that notion just as easily de-legitimizes numerous causes that we should support. Trump was a bad president because of the things he did and the causes he supported, not because of who supported him. And it’s disgraceful to try to justify the USA’s zealous pursuit of Edward Snowden for leaking actual unconstitutional actions by the NSA based on the fact that his actions helped Russia. In this case, the interests of Putinist Russia and of the American citizens coincide if only by chance, Russia wanted to (again) take America down a peg and American citizens should want our fundamental rights to be respected. The fact that an action or a group or an individual is supported rhetorically or covertly by Russia is no reason to think that the cause or the individual themselves is a Russian asset, otherwise should we have tossed civil rights and BLM in the bin?

Small point: why is Ford stock such a bad deal?

In my first post on Cult of the Lamb, I offhandedly mentioned that it was retailing for the price of two shares of Ford ($F) stock, and that it was the better deal. This led to one friend asking me: “wait, why is Ford stock not a great deal?”

For the last 40-odd years Ford (and most American car companies) went through a mini-death spiral.  Profit margins shrank badly and caused them to lose a lot of value.  On top of it Ford is a “dividend king” stock, it pretty much always pays a hefty dividend which means investors like to hold it but you shouldn’t expect it to increase in value because money handed to the investors is money not being used to grow the company

Still, it’s true that Ford is down about 40% year to date while the broader stock market is down only 20% (Meta aka Facebook is down 60%, if you want to see what a disaster looks like).  Probably a lot of that is a combination of inflation (real wages are down 3.2% this year, and there was 0% real wage growth in 2021 due to inflation) and also the fact that EVs/plug in hybrids are the future and Ford barely does that.  Tesla is an all EV company and Toyota has become an all Hybrid company, both of them are expected to grow their revenue next year while Ford is expected to shrink.  Tesla was dummy overvalued in 2021 but it’s still a growing company and that counts for a lot.

So Ford as a company is worth less than it was in the 80s and it doesn’t have a plan to fix that.  It still pays a 4% dividend but so does a government bond these days and bonds are risk free.  If you buy Ford you’re hoping it goes up but you can’t really expect it to since revenue is shrinking.  You’re praying someone at the company figures this out and shakes things up.  If they could figure it out they might go somewhere.  Toyota produces 3x the amount of cars Ford does, but Ford produces 3x the amount that Tesla does.  5 years ago I remember thinking Tesla was a scam because Tesla produced less than 1/40 of the cars Ford did, but as I told you I was wrong in my bet against Musk (really I was in an echo chamber) because Tesla has grown and Ford has shrunk.  People buy Tesla stock expecting it to keep growing, people buy Ford stock hoping it stops shrinking.  Ultimately Ford’s history this century doesn’t make that seem like a good bet.

Final thoughts on Cult of the Lamb

A couple of days ago I said I’d gotten into playing Cult of the Lamb. Well I finished it and as of right now you can buy it for 20% of until December 12th. Note: the game isn’t really about story, but there are total spoilers below.

As I said in my previous post the plot was pretty much what you would expect from the outset, the Evil God you’re serving is your final boss fight after you’ve defeated the False Gods who tried to kill you at the beginning of the game. Let’s put some names to these characters: the Evil God you serve is called “The One Who Waits” while the False Gods you fight are the four “Bishops of the Old Faith”. The only sizzle to the plot is the tiny bit of interest that Bishop #3 is scared of you instead of angry and murder-y towards you like Bishops #1 and #2, and that Bishop #4 basically knows you’re going to kill them all and isn’t too upset about it when you speak to her. They throw a tiny interesting twist that The One Who Waits was originally Bishop #5, but they were so proud of that revelation that they have Bishop #4 repeat it to you verbatim about three different times, killing its gravity.

The Bishops are vaguely themed after a couple of different things, but this theming in incredibly bare-bones. The first 3 Bishops are all obviously deformed, #1 has his eyes removed, #2 has her throat slit, #3 has his ears removed. The in-game achievements then spell this theming out for you as “See no Evil, Speak no Evil, Hear no Evil.” Bishop #4 has a head wound, so “Think no Evil,” and The One Who Waits gives you an achievement for “Do no Evil” to complete the set. Cute. Then they’re vaguely themed after the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, only here it’s War, Famine, Pestilence, and Entropy/Change. Bishop #2 (Famine) will make your cultists starve when you meet her, Bishop #3 (Pestilence) will sicken them and Bishop #4 (Entropy/Change) will turn them against you so you have no choice but to kill them.

By the way, I’m saying “Bishop #whatever” here because I genuinely don’t remember these guys’ names, they were not really key to my enjoyment of the game.

The only sizzle the this story is that The One Who Waits and Bishop #4 were an item long ago. The One Who Waits was the god of Death, the ultimate inevitability. But his association with Bishop #4 (who’s dominion was Entropy/Change) screwed him up somehow, you can’t change what’s inevitable but he damn well tried to. This led to the others imprisoning him and killing off all lambs (I guess?) so he could never return. But again Bishop #4 is all about Entropy/Change (it honestly wasn’t clear to me which) and so she knows this situation won’t last, knows that she’ll get killed by the Lamb (your protagonist), and even knows the Lamb will kill The One Who Waits, which indeed you do at the end of the game.

So that’s the story of the thing. I’m pretty sure my few paragraphs are about as long as all the dialogue in the game because story really isn’t the focus here, gameplay is.

As for the gameplay, remember I discussed last time that the game is really made up of 2 separate games that vaguely tie together: you have a cult who you have to manage and who reward you with better weapons, and you go dungeon diving with your better weapons to get items and cult members to expand your cult.

Unfortunately the cult ran out of fun things for me way before the dungeon diving combat sections. I had bought every weapon/card upgrade in the game by the time I’d killed Bishop #3, but I still had #4 and The One Who Waits so I kind of ignored the cult and focused on them. This was to my detriment, I hadn’t noticed that each dungeon you entered had a minimum number of cultists required to let you enter, for dungeons 1, 2 and 3 I had had exactly the minimum number and so I actually thought this wasn’t a minimum requirement, it was just the game alerting me to how many cultist I had at the moment. But Dungeon #5 requires 20 cultists so after getting all geared up to kill The One Who Waits I suddenly had to run around and find 6 new cultists in order to proceed.

Like I said managing the cult just isn’t fun enough on its own to justify it’s gameplay when it isn’t providing you those sweet combat level-ups. This isn’t a Rimworld sort of game, the cultists don’t have enough personality or enough uniqueness to really make you care about them. And the good or evil rules you can lay down for your cult are quite interesting in how they can make your cult more efficient, but they grow stale over time.

Remember, I had a rule where I could murder anyone in the cult at any time and all my cult members gained faith when elderly members were murdered. That was a fun little synergy, as was throwing a Feast when Bishop #2 made all my cultists starve. But the cult system isn’t interesting or challenging enough to keep that fun going for the length of the game, which is unfortunate.

The combat sections however are quite fun for the entire length of the game, especially as you start getting into the weird and unique late-game benefits you can acquire. To remind you of how the combat works: you enter a dungeon and get a random weapon and a random magic spell with which to kill your enemies. As you continue through the dungeon you’ll find rooms containing either cards or new weapons/magic for you to choose from.

The cards are pretty sweet, giving you things like extra health, extra damage, or the ability to drop a bomb whenever you dodge-roll. The weapons can be too, with unique abilities like poison, stealing health, or summoning ghosts. One late-game item you can equip though is a new robe which gives you 4 cards at the start of the dungeon but no new cards during the dungeon. The trade-off is clear as getting these super-powers early might be worth having slightly less of them overall, but what wasn’t clear was that this ability also dramatically lowers the number of new weapons you get as the weapon rooms are removed also. I mostly liked using Axes, Hammers, or if I had to Swords. I didn’t like the Daggers or the Gloves, but since I had so few new weapons when using that robe I kept getting stuck with weapons I didn’t like which was unfortunate.

I want to talk more about the combat but I feel I just don’t have the gaming vocabulary to do it justice since I play so few games of this type. I like that the enemies often glow when they’re about to make an attack, as it helps you learn their attack pattern and dodgeroll out of the way. I like that you can cancel an attack into a dodgeroll or a dodgeroll into an attack at any time. I do not like that you can’t cancel a magic spell this way, and find it weird that when aiming magic spells the game slows down time to help you out a bit.

The early game enemies are all about learning their patterns and dodgerolling at the right time. Later enemies start throwing out loads of projectiles (is this what folks call “Bullet Hell“?) which require you to focus on the projectiles and dodgeroll through them to escape. Nearly every attack is telegraphed in this game, so I’m sure speedrunners and the like can learn to play the whole game without taking damage.

I think the boss fights are interesting, they all have a similar gimmick of combining a massive number of projectiles with a massive number of minor enemies plus a big enemy boss, all of which makes it hard to know what you need to concentrate on and makes it easier to take hits. Still the boss fights against the 4 Bishops felt tangibly easier that the dungeons and minibosses that preceded them, I wonder if this was a deliberate move on the part of the devs to make the Bishops feel climactic while still letting you beat them on your first try and feel powerful in doing so. The one exception is Bishop #5 aka The One Who Waits and that’s because he doesn’t even have a dungeon, you just walk straight into his boss fight. I guess again they wanted that climactic feeling and a dungeon would kind of ruin it.

What few quibbles I have left are mostly minor things that other roguelike enjoyers (this is apparently also classified as a roguelike) probably don’t think are issues. I always hated a run where I got stuck with a weapon I didn’t like (say a Dagger) for too long, and sometimes the cards just are useless for you. But whatever, it was a fun game.

I no longer consider interview offers that don’t come with a salary range

I have a job, but in a market like this there’s no reason not to be looking out for a better one. Studies have shown that the best way to get a raise is to move to a new job, and although there’s costs involved the benefits can be massive, especially as American workers have taken a real-wage paycut of 3.2% this year when factoring in inflation. So I’ll humor any recruiter who wants to talk to me. What I won’t humor is recruiters who aren’t upfront about their salary range. Don’t be fooled, companies never start hiring for a job without already knowing what salary they’re willing to pay, budgets are written and approved long before they even start reaching out for resumes. So every company knows exactly what range of salary they’re willing to pay, but they want to use the asymmetry of a job search to pay less than the market rate for labor.

Usually getting a job requires you to submit a resume, do a few interviews, and then see if you get hired. Companies want salary negotiations to only start after this whole process because they know it’s better for them than the worker. The worker has already spent several hours of their precious time applying to this company, so if they’ve made it to the offer stage they now have to decide whether they’ll accept a low-ball salary offer or go through the whole rigamarole all over again with another company and have no guarantee that that company won’t low-ball them as well. If the salary is transparent from the beginning, then workers won’t waste their time interviewing with companies that are below their salary range and so will be paid what they’re worth.

For shitty companies that pay peanuts, making the salary transparent would kill them. No one would ever interview with them because the price they’re paying for labor is just too cheap. That means the company can’t hire any workers and eventually goes bankrupt and blames “no one wanting to work”. But if salary is not transparent, then shitty companies that pay peanuts can rope in suckers, string them along for some interviews, and then give them a low-ball offer and hope the worker is too tired of interviews to go out and look for something better. Companies that pay good salaries are also harmed by salaries not being transparent because workers don’t actually know if a good company pays well since they can’t reliably compare them to a shitty company.

So if you ever see a company that won’t give you the salary range up front, it’s a shitty company trying to hide how little it pays. Good companies that pay well have every incentive to advertise the fact that they pay well so they can attract the best talent. For that reason, I never speak to companies that don’t tell me the salary range up front.

New game I’m playing: Cult of the Lamb

Cult of the Lamb is an exciting little hack-n-slash mixed with base building game that I’ve been playing a lot of recently. The game opens up with your protagonist (the eponymous Lamb) being sacrificed to prevent the resurrection of an Evil God. Turns out killing the Lamb just sent them straight to Evil God instead, who resurrects the Lamb and tells them to kill all the False Gods who stand before them. From here the resurrected Lamb is handed a sword and some magic to start going nuts, as well as a few servants to build up a cult and become ever more powerful so they can slay their enemies and presumably resurrect the Evil God in turn.

I haven’t finished the game but I assume once you resurrect the Evil God, everything is smiles and happiness forever and the Lamb just retires to running their cult. There’s no way the Evil God is actually the final boss you’ll be killing at the end.

Anyway this game isn’t anywhere near the kind of thing I usually play, fast paced hack-n-slashers just aren’t my forte, and playing one with a mouse and keyboard probably brands me a heretic in most people’s eyes. Still, it’s a very enjoyable experience with an easy-to-use dodgeroll and a variety of enemy patterns to keep the game interesting. You can cancel sword attacks using the dodgeroll as well (though infuriatingly, not magic attacks) meaning most combat arenas turn into me rolling around like Sonic the Hedgehog on cocaine, hacking and dodging all the while. I actually learned that I get better at the game by taking things a tad slower though (your weapon has knockback and often cancels enemy attacks), so this isn’t always the best strat.

Anyway when you’re not dodgerolling through the cultists of the False Gods, you’re managing your own cult to gather the resources needed to improve and expand your abilities. The two sides of the game (cult running and hacking/slashing) are actually way more disconnected than they seem, the combat bonuses you get from managing your cult are rather modest, but it’s definitely a fun way to take a break in between the hyperactive combat sections. Your cult is made up of cultists you randomly capture or save during combat sections, and as per usual they all need to eat, sleep, and stay healthy, and in return they will believe in you more which unlocks higher tiers of weapons and magic later in the game. But besides these very modest combat benefits, running the cult feels mostly like playing an entirely separate game. That’s not a terrible thing mind, because it’s still a fun game, it just doesn’t have as much combat benefits as it at first seems.

The cult itself includes the usual Rimworld-eque activities of getting food, building beds, and making sure everyone is happy. I’m sure Rimworld wasn’t the first game of this type but it’s the first one I played and so everything reminds me of it. The unique selling point of this game though is that since you’re running a cult, you can make all sorts of arbitrary rules and regulations to make it more efficient or just torment your little cultists. You can hold feasts, you can appoint a tax collector, you can unlock the ability to murder any cultist you want (good for removing dissidents). All these rules can make your cult run just a bit more smoothly which lets your cultists level up more and will allow you to unlock those modest weapon upgrades for the combat I was talking about.

To go back to combat, the last big selling point is the cards and weapons randomizer to keep the runs fresh and interesting. Each time you go on a “crusade” against your enemies, you will enter a dungeon with a randomly selected weapon and magic attack. They all have unique properties so two runs can feel entirely different depending on whether you get the hammer (slow as molasses but deals huge damage) or the dagger (quick strikes, lower damage).

In addition, each weapons can have one of several unique bonuses such as stealing health, poisoning, or unleashing ghosts. You may then randomly find weapon shops in the dungeon where you can exchange your weapons for 1 of 3 others. But in addition to all this you will find card shops that will let you select 1 of 2 random cards for a separate benefit. These cards range from poisoning anyone you hit, to getting some extra health, to swinging your weapon faster or more strongly.

The randomness of which weapons you’ll get combined with which cards you’ll get adds a huge layer of replayability to any run ensuring that no two crusades feel the same. And since you unlock higher level weapons and new cards through the cult, they form the major way that the two areas of gameplay interact.

So the game is really two separate games that are both fun in their own right, but which somewhat combine to become greater than the sum of their parts. If I do have any quibbles they are minor, but for completeness sake:

  • I don’t like how choosing the rules of your cult locks you into that rule and can’t be changed. I also don’t like how you don’t get to see all the possible rules before you pick. In my first playthrough I chose a rule that locked me out of being able to murder cultists on demand, which later became a problem as I had a few dissidents running around and not enough wood to build jail cells to contain them. I then found that I had chosen another set of rules which didn’t actually synergize that well with each other, and that I’d prefer to have picked the “murder anyone” rule because it synergized pretty well with the “cultists gain faith when old members of the cult get murdered” rule as well as some others. I decided that even though it’s against the spirit of these types of games, I’d have a lot more fun by just restarting and choosing different rules
  • Speaking of restarting, I don’t like how the game has unskippable intros and tutorials to start off. Maybe there’s some option to skip them but I didn’t find any, so I had to rewatch the opening cutscenes and replay the opening tutorials before I could get back to where I wanted to be. In a game all about high-octane combat, starting a new game should put as few barriers as possible between you and the “good stuff” so it’s disappointing that this game has so much unskippable faffery to start off with. It’s not that the first sections of the game are bad mind you, they should just be skippable on repeat playthroughs.
  • The story is passable, which is both good and bad. Actually I guess it’s mostly good, since in less than a minute it sets up who you are, your goals, and your enemies, but still it isn’t going to knock anyone’s socks off but then it isn’t trying to.
  • I guess every game now wants to let you customize and name your little Rimworld-esque cultists, but to be honest I’ve never felt so disconnected from them as in this game. In Rimworld and other games, the cultists (colonists in Rimworld) are your main asset and avenue of gameplay. What they do IS what the game is about, so customizing them and watching them grow, level up, and die is fun and tugs on your heartstrings. Here the cultists are mostly devoid of personality and unique attributes, and there aren’t even good ways to wrangle them in the ways I’d like to (you have to talk to them individually to give them specific jobs). So customizing them does nothing for me, I’d much rather customize the Lamb (your protagonist/Avatar of Destruction) and give them a unique name and character model, but alas that’s the one character you can’t change.

Anyway with all that said, it’s a fun little game that’s retailing for the equivalent of 2 shares of Ford ($F) common stock. So if you have 2 shares of $F go ahead and sell them to buy this, because it’s honestly a better use of your money.

Controversy time: I don’t like ESG investing

ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) is a scoring system some folks have come up with to score which stocks you can “ethically” invest in vs those you shouldn’t. The problem I have is that it seems like a bunch of woo.

The idea is that companies shouldn’t just try to make the most money, they should also protect the environment, advance social justice, and govern themselves responsibly. Yet I’m reminded again of how FTX (you know, the folks who stole investor’s money) got really high scores on ESG despite being a complete criminal enterprise. Other dicey factors seem totally ignored in ESG rankings as well, TotalEnergies SE ($TTE) is a French company directly funding the Russian Genocide of Ukrainians by continuing to ship LNG out of Russia and yet it’s considered a “leader” in the Social category. An otherwise identical company like Exxon-Mobile ($XOM) is considered just “average” in the Social category despite no longer operating in Russia since the war began, so it seems like a little genocide between friends doesn’t affect TotalEnergies’ ESG scores all that much. One wonders just what does affect ESG in that case.

This may seem unfair, after all TotalEnergies is just trying to make money, right? And their LNG is in heavy demand by customers, right? Yet that is exactly what ESG scores are supposed to act against, the tyranny of capitalism to externalize all costs onto the rest of society. Tesla for instance is merely a 9/10 in the Environmental category because despite moving the largest number of cars in history off of fossil fuels, their cars use lithium and the mining of lithium hurts the environment. This is a cost that Tesla externalizes to the rest of us, yet it’s a necessary cost to run their business so they get an ESG ding. But it seems ESG scores are applied randomly and say more about the scorer’s personal biases than anything to do with the companies themselves.

So here’s my advice: forget ESG entirely. If you want to invest ethically, then look at the companies you’re investing in and weigh the costs and benefits yourself. Does Apple adding new privacy features make up for the horrific conditions at the Foxxcon factories? Then go ahead and invest. But that’s a very personal ethics question that no one else can answer for you. If you instead export that question to some ESG-ified ETF, then you’re just letting someone else’s biases run your investment account. And those people might not know the first damn thing about Environmentalism, Social Justice, or Corporate Governance.

Always double guessing my stock choices

I don’t know if other folks do this, but every time I buy a stock I stop to double guess myself. If I see a stock that looks FANTASTIC, good P/E, good dividend, good growth, it may seem like a perfect buy. But I always stop and ask myself “if it’s such a great buy, why isn’t everyone else buying it, why hasn’t the price been pushed up?” Usually this leads me to double checking and realizing the reasons which I had not previously noticed. For instance, it was pointed out to me that Big Box retail stores are very highly valued right now, Walmart is selling at a higher P/E than Microsoft and Apple just for example. It seems that in the current economy, people are looking for the security of retails rather than the growth of Tech. But there’s no way Walmart is worth about 50 P/E, so it doesn’t make sense to buy it at this price point. Macy’s however ($M) is selling at just around 8 P/E. It’s a big box retailer with steady cash flow, doesn’t it look like a perfect buy? But why is it selling so low and Walmart is selling so high? I looked and Macy’s forward P/E isn’t so good, it’s expected to be around 10 or 12. So it looks like right now Macy’s is expected to be a shrinking company, and that’s why it’s being sold on discount. So now I have a better idea of exactly what bet I’m making, do I expect Macy’s P/E to go down that much or might they buck the trend and remain stable or grow? That will tell me whether I actually want to buy their stock or not.

In a market as efficient as the stock market, there are rarely any free 20$ bills on the sidewalk, you always have to wonder “if this move makes sense then why isn’t everyone doing it?” and that will make you realize the downsides of the bet you’re making.

Short post, just want to vent

I encourage anyone to read this tweet thread as it sums up perfectly my anger with how the FTX scandal is being covered. This is a news story about a crypto exchange doing what all crypto exchanges do, steal clients money to fuel their vices. And yet the framing in most stories you find will not be about how SBF stole client’s money, but about a “lack of controls” and “failures of governance” which are corporate-ese ways of downplaying SBF’s crimes and making him seem like just a CEO who couldn’t quite handle it. This cannot possibly be by accident, most journalists understand framing and most journalists on twitter are laser-focused on complaining about other people framing things in ways they don’t like. So why is the framing surrounding the FTX saga downplaying SBF’s crimes and normalizing his actions? Why are so many stories trying to focus attention on SBF allegedly raising new funds, instead of on the fact that he stole funds in the first place? Why is his opinions and personal life being written about with more detail than the lives he destroyed through theft? Go find some of SBF’s villains, it shouldn’t be hard. Write about them struggling to pay the bills because they lost it all in his exchange. Hopefully find some who have finally learned that all crypto is a scam, and write about how they had to lose their house in order to learn that lesson. Most of the journalists currently humanizing SBF and ignoring his victims would have screamed bloody murder if the same had been done to Bernie Madoff, so why the fuck are they doing it now.

You cannot time the market

When you look at the stock market, it’s very human to want to “time” it, that you can buy a stock at it’s lowest point, sell it at its peak, and make oodles of cash. When Apple first IPO’d, it was selling for about 14 cents (when stock splits are taken into account) and it reached an all time high at closing of 180.96$ just within the last year. If you’d bought 1000$ of Apple stock at IPO, and sold them in January, you’d be a millionaire. Even if you weren’t born in 1992, if you’d bought 1000$ of Apple stock in January of 2019, you could have caught it at a price of 37$, giving you a nearly 500% return if you’d sold it in January 2022. This isn’t even taking into account the dividends paid by Apple, which would have increased your return even more especially if you’d reinvested them back into Apple!

But timing the market is impossible, or at least that’s what mainstream economists usually think. It goes back to what I’ve said about The Efficient Market Hypothesis, the stock market is believed to approximate a random walk, therefore it is impossible to know exactly when the bottom is, for the market or for any stock. Therefore the hypothesis says it’s impossible to buy at the bottom and sell at the top except by dumb luck. Even if the hypothesis is wrong (Warren Buffett doesn’t believe it), it is still likely to be functionally impossible to time the market because no one can bring together all the knowledge of the entire economy to accurately declare “yes, this is the bottom”

As a silly example, I follow a lot of stock twits on various social media forums, and the consensus in mid-October was that inflation was still roaring and we had a long way to fall. Since then the S&P 500 has gone up around 15%. Will it pull back down? Maybe, but maybe not. Either way, sitting on the sidelines and losing the opportunity to make a 15% free return a month in a half was probably a dumb move. If people could really, reliably time the market, then investing in mid-October to get a free return through late November would have definitely been the play. And if we’re due for a pullback then you could sell now and keep your winnings. Yet I heard not a peep of this kind of advice through mid-October, so I don’t think any of those stock twits could time the market.

Even more silly of an example is looking back at the recent market crash of 2008. The market bottomed completely in march 2009 and rose from there, but it didn’t stop takemongers from claiming that we were due for an even worse crash any day now.

I know my examples are just anecdotes, but basically I haven’t seen any single person who could reliably time the market over any timecourse whatsoever. Timing the market isn’t value investing it isn’t finding good companies at good prices, it would be going all-cash at the top and going all-in at the bottom, and doing this multiple times a year in order to maximize your returns on each up- and down-swing. You occasionally see hedge funds or take-mongers say they’ve gone all cash, but they then usually miss the bottom of the market by a lot and quietly re-enter it after the big gains have already happened, without ever admitting they were wrong.

In these cases, the old adage is probably the most correct: time in the market beats timing the market.