I’m doubling posting today because I have a separate thought that I want to get out. Does anyone remember the site “The Oil Drum“? In my poking around the Peak Oil mediasphere, I found a few references to it. It seems that during its existence from mid 2000s into 2013, it was a non-profit project spreading the Good Word of Peak Oil and doing a lot of research on that subject as well.

Here’s a chart they show to prove that Peak Oil is happening and that 2008 is definitely the peak. The figure was produced in 2008, and the commentary reads:

Comment: The highest estimate in [this figure] is from the US Energy Information Administration. It is based primarily on demand, under the assumption that OPEC will always have additional oil available, if needed.

The next highest forecast is from the June 2008 newsletter of the Association for the Study Peak Oil and Gas-Ireland, prepared by Colin Campbell. This is a very well-known forecast. A link to it can be found here. It forecasts a peak in 2008, with a fairly slow decline after 2008.

The next highest forecast is that of Tony Eriksen (“Ace”) of The Oil Drum staff. A link to his forecast can be found here. In this forecast, Ace considers the various Megaprojects, and when they are expected to go on line. He also considers expected decline rates on existing fields. He believes that we are on a plateau now that may last a few years. After that production will decline.

The remaining estimate is by Matt Simmons. In this interview, he mentions that he expects crude oil (not “total liquids”) to drop to 65 million barrels a day by 2013. I have attempted to translate this comment into an equivalent projection, on a total liquids basis. It ends up being just a bit below Ace’s projection.

It seems like for the year 2019 (the year before COVID sent the economy haywire), the Oil Drum experts predicted about 60 million barrels per day of oil production. ASPO was more bullish at 70 million barrels per day. Meanwhile the US Energy Information Administration gave a much higher prediction, but the Oil Drum seems to claim that US EIA was making numbers out of thin air in its mistaken belief that oil production would be driven solely by demand. Yet US EIA’s prediction of 100 million barrels per day was just a hair above the real number of 95 million barrels per day. Maybe the US EIA (an agency withing the Department of Energy) actually does do research and knew a bit more in 2008 than folks at The Oil Drum.